In my opinion, any purported “expert” or futurist should be required to register his or her predictions with an independent group with yearly reports on their success and failure. UC Berkeley’s Philip Tetlock,* who mapped more than 82,000 forecasts against real-world outcomes, found that the “Hedgehogs”—the photogenic and most articulate prognosticators, the ones with the one big, beautiful idea that they loved to stretch—were noticeably less accurate in their forecasts than the “Foxes.” These were the more obscure forecasters, less attractive and more stumbling in their media appearances, self-critical, eclectic thinkers who were doubtful of grand schemes, and modest about their predictive ability.
Here’s one more Pelton Law of Prediction: Modesty always wins in the long run.
(Joseph N. Pelton: The Trouble With Predictions: The “Negroponte Flip” 20 Years Later)
Negroponte újabbkori dolgai nem annyira működnek. Valószínűleg újra kéne olvasni a Digitális létezést, mert elsőre, scifinek olvasva tetszett.